We’re deep enough into fall to focus on developing college football betting trends. Among those trends is success to the Over/Under. Ten teams are undefeated to the Over. Among that group are three Ohio-based programs — Cincinnati, Ohio University, and Bowling Green.
Each team is 4-0 to the Over, but not every college football betting trend is created equally or tells the same story. We’re taking a look at how each of Ohio’s undefeated (to the Over) programs got to this point. And we’re offering a bit of insight into what bettors — and fans — can expect going forward.
College Football Betting Trends — Ohio Teams Hitting Overs
Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1 Overall)
The Bearcats are the best of the three Ohio-based programs that are undefeated to the Over. They’re continuing their ascent as a program, and will likely find themselves solidly within bowl contention. Quarterback Ben Bryant is filling the void left by now-NFL signal-caller Desmond Ridder. He’s completing 67.2% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Cincinnati’s lone defeat came at the hands of the Arkansas Razorbacks, who are ranked No. 20 in the nation. The Bearcats have been dominant otherwise, scoring plenty of points, and making it difficult for the opposition to score. Their +88 point-differential underscores their dominance.
The American Athletic Conference opens league play Saturday. Cincinnati’s upcoming schedule doesn’t present obvious buzzsaws. Their schedule begins with Tulsa on Oct. 1. The Golden Hurricane score and surrender points at a healthy clip. Beware of rising totals as oddsmakers begin to adjust their opening lines in response to early betting patterns.
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Ohio Bobcats (2-2)
Two things jump out about Ohio’s results at first glance. They won shootouts against “small” programs (41-38 vs. FAU, 59-52 vs. Fordham), and suffered blowouts against Power Five schools (46-10 at Penn State, 43-10 at Iowa State).
Ohio opens its Mid-American Conference slate Saturday with eyes on improving last season’s 3-5 mark in league play. The Mid-American Conference didn’t earn the nickname “MACtion” for its low-scoring, defensive trudges. Bettors and Ohio backers know to expect offensive fireworks when these teams take the field.
The Bobcats open their league schedule at Kent State. Totals hover in the 65-65.5 range across the industry’s top sportsbooks, suggesting another barn burner. Penn State and Iowa State did the heavy lifting in their dominant victories over Ohio, but from here on out, hitting Overs will be a collaborative effort between Ohio and its opponents.
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Bowling Green (1-3)
Bowling Green has surrendered more points than any other team in the MAC, but it also played eight overtime periods. There aren’t many Overs that can survive a 59-57 scoring fest like the one delivered by Bowling Green and Eastern Kentucky. And when they weren’t padding their offensive numbers, they were surrendering 45 points apiece to UCLA and Mississippi State.
The Falcons open conference play against Akron, one of the few MAC teams struggling in the scoring department. Much of that can be attributed to playing at Michigan State and at Tennessee, both of whom feature top 15 programs in the nation. However, Liberty is not in the same tier as those teams, and Akron only mustered 12 points.
Over bettors can expect to find totals in the 51.5-52 range ahead of Saturday’s contest. That’s a far cry from the aforementioned Ohio vs. Kent State matchup, but it’s reasonable to expect the Zips to find more offensive success and combine for a quality serving of offensive play when they share the field with Bowling Green on Saturday.
AP Photo/Jeff Dean